摘要:
为破解中国足球后备人才培养的关键问题，对我国足球后备人才成长规律进行实证分析。以2009年前后出生的青少年为样本，测算普通学校、体校、足球学校、职业俱乐部、社会青训在后备人才培养上的成材率，发现足球学校和职业俱乐部青训培养的运动员入选国家队的概率分别为7‰和5‰，培养成效远超学校、体校和社会青训。通过构建足球发达国家的精英运动员成长轨迹，发现17岁前获得联赛出场机会的运动员成为国家队核心运动员的概率为22.5%，17～21岁获得联赛出场机会的运动员成为国家队核心运动员的概率为12.2%，21岁以上获得联赛出场机会的运动员成为国家队核心运动员的概率为6.1%，该结论为证实我国足球后备人才在（准）职业化阶段的培养短板提供了量化证据。据此提出破解思路：以加快五级青训中心建设为核心重塑青训体系，以优化青少年赛事体系为抓手增强竞技实力，以强化精英青训培养路径为依托提高培养质效，以深化贯通式培养为保障强化教育支撑，以推动足球人才留洋为补充加快国际接轨。
Abstract:
To address the challenges in the development of youth football talent in China, this study conducts an empirical analysis with a cohort of players born in 2009 as the sample. The study estimates the success probabilities of different training pathways, namely schools, sports schools, football schools, professional club academies, and social club youth training systems. The findings show that the probabilities of players trained by football schools and professional club academies being selected for the national team are 7‰ and 5‰, respectively, significantly higher than those of schools, sports schools, and the others. By constructing the development trajectories of elite players in leading football nations, the study further finds that players who obtain league appearances before the age of 17 have a 22.5% probability of becoming core members of the national team; those who gain such opportunities between ages 17 and 21 have a probability of 12.2%; and those who do so after the age of 21 have a probability of 6.1%. These results provide quantitative evidence of the structural shortcomings in China's youth talent development during the (quasi-) professional stage. Based on these findings, the study proposes several policy recommendations: to reconstruct the youth training system by accelerating the development of a five-tier youth training center system; to enhance the competitive performance by optimizing the youth competition structure; to improve the training quality and efficiency by strengthening elite development pathways; to reinforce educational support through integrated, vertically articulated training mechanisms; and to promote international integration by facilitating overseas development opportunities for football talent.